Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.034365 0.039194 0.044490 0.050737 0.057912 0.065901 0.075486
2025-01-05 0.025707 0.031942 0.039415 0.049059 0.061208 0.076055 0.095646
2025-01-12 0.021287 0.028002 0.036543 0.048251 0.063958 0.084406 0.113220
2025-01-19 0.017803 0.024517 0.033475 0.046372 0.064580 0.089549 0.126686
2025-01-26 0.016339 0.023430 0.033299 0.048139 0.070071 0.101578 0.150781
2025-02-02 0.015149 0.022522 0.033176 0.049837 0.075493 0.113932 0.176677
2025-02-09 0.014148 0.021734 0.033082 0.051471 0.080879 0.126677 0.204561
2025-02-16 0.012839 0.020314 0.031845 0.051145 0.083082 0.134602 0.225553
2025-02-23 0.011854 0.019281 0.031075 0.051424 0.086205 0.144214 0.250328
2025-03-02 0.010810 0.018035 0.029822 0.050739 0.087578 0.150956 0.270810
2025-03-09 0.010205 0.017454 0.029592 0.051732 0.091888 0.163115 0.302294
2025-03-16 0.009410 0.016466 0.028566 0.051208 0.093405 0.170402 0.325517
2025-03-23 0.009027 0.016178 0.028759 0.052940 0.099327 0.186557 0.368100
2025-03-30 0.008163 0.014949 0.027162 0.051210 0.098559 0.190056 0.386189
2025-04-06 0.007520 0.014062 0.026098 0.050364 0.099369 0.196623 0.411223
2025-04-13 0.006802 0.012966 0.024543 0.048398 0.097725 0.198075 0.425582
2025-04-20 0.006614 0.012874 0.024891 0.050246 0.104033 0.216447 0.478928
2025-04-27 0.006428 0.012765 0.025194 0.052023 0.110366 0.235543 0.536355
2025-05-04 0.006245 0.012644 0.025455 0.053732 0.116726 0.255378 0.598069
2025-05-11 0.005869 0.012094 0.024792 0.053391 0.118519 0.265251 0.637372
2025-05-18 0.005584 0.011708 0.024437 0.053683 0.121763 0.278758 0.687299
2025-05-25 0.005232 0.011149 0.023665 0.052966 0.122592 0.286711 0.724295
2025-06-01 0.005054 0.010955 0.023663 0.054005 0.127671 0.305345 0.791315